Measuring Team Success
By Arabia Tillery
July 22, 2024 | 4:09 PM ET
(Washington, DC)
- I hear a lot of people questioning whether their favorite NFL team will have a good season, or discussing opinions on other teams' execution this upcoming season, but I want to put things into perspective. Success and failure aren’t measured the same across all 32 teams. What success looks like for the 49ers is different than what success looks like for the Cowboys, which is different than what success looks like for the Commanders, etc. It’s levels to this.
Washington Quarterback Jayden Daniels (LSU)
The 49ers went to the Super Bowl twice in the last 4 years. Once in 2020, then again this year. San Francisco lost both times. Their last super bowl win was in 1995. They’ve been to the NFC Championship 4 times in the last 4 years: 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024. They are tied with the Cowboys for the most NFC Championship game appearances with 8, but they have the most losses, with 11. Dallas is 8-6 in the NFC Championship game and San Francisco is 8-11.
Sidebar: the Giants are extremely impressive in this regard: 5-0! Every time they go to the NFC Championship they win: 2 home wins and 3 away wins. They’re 4 for 5 in those super bowls. As history shows, if they make it to the NFC Championship, they’re VERY likely to win the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are also undefeated in the NFC Championship game, they’re 3-0. However, they only have 1 super bowl win (GIVE MARSHAWN THE BALL!)
Back to this season - The 49ers need to WIN A SUPER BOWL for them to have a successful season. The bar is high
for them. Win the big game! This is easier said than done, of course, but success is defined as winning a Super Bowl for San Francisco.
WR Malik Nabors (LSU) on draft night in Detroit, Michigan.
Cowboys - The regular season isn’t typical their problem. They've gone 12-5 in the last 3 years in a row. They've had some down years, but for the most part over the last decade, they’ve had decent regular seasons. They won the division
5 times in the last decade, more than anyone else in the conference. Now, take the next step. Make a playoff run. Can they get past the divisional round? Because that seems to be
their ceiling in recent history. Get past the divisional round of the playoffs and make a deep run. Even GETTING to
the Super Bowl and losing would still be really successful for Dallas. The last time they went was 1996.
RB Ezekiel Elliot takes a knee in AT&T Stadium
Commanders – I would caution fans not to use wins and losses as a metric of success. It's dangerous to see a team getting wins, and automatically think everything is fine. Instead, it is important to look at the quality of the wins and the
quality of the losses? Winning masks blemishes. Washington is still building a solid foundation with new
owners, new coaches, almost 70% new roster including a new, franchise rookie QB. Here’s what success would
look like for a team like Washington:
- Develop your QB. Who's the last FRANCHISE QB they've had? (wait) Kirk Cousins? EXTREMELY unfortunate what happened to RGIII! They weren’t able to build the offense with him because he got injured. Protect your quarterback. Don’t put him in compromising positions to get hurt or not learn. Surround him with the appropriate coaches and trainers who marry well with each other in terms of scheme and temperament. Give him weapons to work with, not just receivers, but reliable backs to help the run game, which in turn helps the pass game. Develop. Jayden. Daniels. And that doesn’t always look like wins and losses! Mostly that will be eye test and watching film to evaluate over period of time.
- What else does Washington need to do to be successful? Statistically, they had the worst defense in the NFL last year. They had the most cap space this offseason. Show improvement on defense. Have something to show for what was spent in the offseason. Washington has a defensive minded head coach in Dan Quinn. Accompanying Quinn is Joe Whitt, Jr, also from Dallas. There is no reason why the Commanders' defense shouldn’t improve this season. They don't have to be categorically #1 in all areas, but they should AT LEAST dominate weaker offenses. There NEEDS to be improvement in red zone stops, 3 and outs, secondary play for the pass and or the defensive line/linebackers stopping the run.
- Washington needs their coaches to perform well. They cannot spend all season forcing something that doesn’t work (we're looking at you, Eric Bieniemy). If they want to live and die by Jayden Daniels' arm, and its just L after L, can they pivot to a run game while they tinker with Jayden? Can they make intelligent game time decisions? Can they play situational football with going for it on 4th and short (or not), kicking a FG vs trying for 6? How balanced will the offense be in terms of the pass and run given what opposing defenses are showing? There needs to be consistent, competent coaching. Execution will not be 100%, but they should at least show what they were TRYING to execute and be able to adjust when things aren't working.
The Commanders need to focus on building a quality foundation, NOT wins and losses this season. As much as fans and media, etc want to see a team in NOW OR NEVER mode, it’s a slow walk when you’ve just revamped your entire organization. Lets measure wins and losses next year or the year after and not build a house on shaky ground.
